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You're in a game show. There are three closed chests, 1, 2, and 3. One of them contains a prize, the other two are empty. You can choose one chest and choose chest 1. "Are you sure?" the game host asks. "You can still switch if you want to!"
At that very moment, chest 2 malfunctions and accidentally opens. It is empty. "Huh," says the host, genuinely surprised. "Well, my offer stands."
What should you do?
@victorgijsbers I don't know if it doesn't matter or not, but staying with my choice defenetly won't increase my chance. So I'll switch. (Does this tell I'm an engineer, not a mathematician?)
@technetium @victorgijsbers This is definitely one of the most original “intuition-based” arguments I ever read in this classical puzzle